WITH a lift in cattle prices for the first month of spring and above average rainfall forecast across the region until December local beef producers should be cock-a-hoop.
Not so according to food and agribusiness research analysts Rabobank who advise that cattle prices may have plateaued and could easily slip back over coming months.
The exception has been prices for processor cows which continued to rise 8 per cent month-on-month up to September, to reach a record $3.84/kg, the highest price in history based on continued strong demand from the United States for grinding beef.
Rabobank has predicted that with a potential further reduction in the U.S. cow herd and lower import volumes from Brazil due to high U.S. import tariffs, imported lean trim prices may continue to stay high.
Conditions and markets remain favourable for beef production but as most farmers will tell you, trying to predict volatile supply and demand and guarantee a profit at the end of the production cycle is a little harder than it may seem.
Urea prices have shown some signs of relief which is good news on the farm input side with prices dropping by an average of 12 per cent month-on-month.
As local farmers consider making the most of the spring flush with urea boosted fertiliser Rabobank has warned urea prices could jump again if demand from India recovers.
Lamb prices continue to hold at very high levels according to Rabobank, contrary to the normal seasonal trend of lower prices as new season lamb hits the market.
Rabobank suspects prices and seasonal conditions are encouraging producers to hold lambs to heavier weights, reducing supply into the market and forcing retailers to lift prices to encourage farmers to sell.
The outlook for dairy farmers is likely to continue to be extremely volatile.
As milk flows start to peak across the eastern seaboard, all eyes are fixed on the strength of global dairy demand.
Rabobank is predicting a weak outlook for Chinese dairy imports into 2026.
Global milk supply continues to rise with the U.S. herd expanding to the largest milk herd since the mid-1990’s and the EU milk supply also edging upwards.
Australian milk supply seems to be diverging from the global trend with the second month in a row where milk supply has dropped 3 per cent year-on-year.
Ongoing sluggishness in demand is evident across the food services sector particularly in sales to low and middle-income consumers. Drinking milk sales are down 1.8 per cent over the past 12 months across all formats.
The next phase of China’s economic cycle will be telling, according to Rabobank with markets looking for a clear recovery in demand as China’s import volumes remain flat.