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Labor’s Crugnale takes telling lead in Bass poll

1 min read

UPDATE: Crugnale leads Brown by 283 votes with 3500-plus still to be counted

The Liberals' Aaron Brown raised concerns about the impact of offshore wind turbines on Phillip Island and the Prom.

LABOR’S Jordan Crugnale is leading the count in the seat of Bass by 283 votes.

That's after 41,934 votes (83.89%) were counted, 39,047 formal, and 2887 informal (6.88%).

The Victorian Electoral Commission posted the update on Saturday, December 3 at 1.29pm. The ABC website had the figures posted almost a full 24 hours earlier.

The ‘official’ count on the VEC website had the count virtually unchanged since lunchtime on Wednesday, November 30, although there was confusion when they posted a tally that was more than 1000 votes fewer on Friday than they reported two and a half days earlier.

Either way, ABC or VEC, Ms Crugnale is edging her way towards an unassailable lead.

At the last election in Bass, when there were 58,325 voters on the roll, 91.06% turned out and voted, or 53,111 votes in all.

In Bass, if the same percentage came out to vote, there would be 45,515 votes for distribution, that is, an additional 3581 more to be included in the count.

If Mr Brown is to win from here, he needs to get almost 8% more of the remaining votes than his counterpart, and to date, the difference has not been that great at any time.

Privately at least, the Liberals in Bass have grown concerned that the seat may be slipping away from them, and that Ms Crugnale will retain Bass for Labor; a herculean feat against a redistribution that made the seat notionally Coalition by 0.7% and in the face of a “patchy” but significant state-wide swing against Labor.

More absentee votes and some remaining postal votes are expected to be included in the count today by the VEC (and by the ABC).