LABOR’S improvement in the polls over the course of the election campaign could make it less likely that Climate 200-backed independent Deb Leonard will win the seat of Monash on the preferences of ALP voters.
Labor’s Jessica O’Donnell got 25.6% of the vote last time, down 4.3% on the previous election, and the Liberals’ Russell Broadbent got 37.8%, down a whopping 8.19%, losing most of those votes to first-time candidate Deb Leonard who captured 10.72% as a relative unknown.
Ms Leonard would need to increase that share of the first preference vote substantially, and get the benefit of The Greens’ preferences and a strong flow from Trumpet of Patriots’ candidate Alex Wehbe to get ahead of Labor’s Tully Fletcher who could be expected to improve on the 2022 ALP result if there is a national swing to Labor.
Leonard stands more chance of winning if local Labor voters put her first and Fletcher second, if they want to be sure of overcoming the conservative alliance that emerged between the disendorsed Liberal Russell Broadbent and new Liberal candidate Mary Aldred when 'how to vote' cards came out.
Recent polling suggests the Monash election will go down to the wire.
The uComms poll - conducted from April 8 to 10 - gave Liberal Party candidate Mary Aldred 50.3 percent of the two-candidate preferred vote, with Independent Deb Leonard on 49.7 per cent assuming she gets past the ALP in the count.
According to the polling, Deb Leonard had a slight edge with undecided voters, with 22.6 percent leaning towards the independent and 22 percent leaning towards Aldred.
But it all comes down to what voters decide to do on election day; will it be one of the major party candidates Tully Fletcher (ALP) or Mary Aldred (Lib). Will voters stay loyal to Russell Broadbent or opt for a new direction with Deb Leonard?
It may be that the election night computers will predict a win by one of the majors, but actually have it wrong by assuming the final two in the count will be Labor and Liberal. It could be days before we know the outcome locally.
In a final pitch to voters, Russell Broadbent reminded the electors that he had always supported policies that put families and farmers first, ensured fuel sovereignty, let parents parent, ensured a responsible economy, invest in the health and wellbeing of Australians supported the proper funding of country roads.
“Australians deserve a representative that isn’t afraid to question the narrative and won’t be constrained to following the party lines or special interests.”
Deb Leonard has also made a final pitch for votes, declaring she has fought a positive campaign, and stayed independent right down to putting out a ‘how to vote’ card that asks for the voter’s number one while encouraging them to make their own preference decision when numbering the card 1-9.
Where can I vote
For voters in some of the major towns in Monash, here are your voting locations:
- Cowes Phillip Island Masonic Lodge
- Fish Creek Memorial Hall
- Foster War Memorial Arts Centre
- Inverloch Primary School
- Leongatha Mesley Hall
- Leongatha Senior Citizens Centre
- Loch Primary School
- Meeniyan Youth Club Hall
- Mirboo North Town Hall
- Nyora Primary School
- Poowong Consolidated School
- San Remo Recreation Centre
- Wonthaggi North Primary School
- Wonthaggi Senior Citizens
Find your closest polling booth HERE
It’s interesting to note that at some of the smaller booths, the incumbent Russell Broadbent dominated the vote last time. How will he fare as an independent?
At Arawata in 2022, a total of 257 votes were cast of which Russell Broadbent got 136. At Kernot 142 voted with 68 to Russell Broadbent, Mt Eccles 166 votes Broadbent 87, Nerrena 338 Broadbent 194, Noojee 192 Broadbent 85, Rhyll 306 Broadbent 105 and at Yanakie 160 voters with Broadbent 44.
Polling booths open at 8am and close at 6pm. Make your vote count by numbering the green slip 1-9, with the number 1 being the candidate you prefer. It’s just as important to put the person you don’t want to win last.
Happy election day.