“WE’VE got no idea who is going to win Monash tonight”.
That’s how the ABC’s election expert Antony Green characterized the situation in Monash at 10pm on Saturday night.
Votes, he said, were going all over the place with no indication how it will turn out.
The Liberals’ Mary Aldred (29.61%) will top the poll on first preference votes, followed by the ALP’s Tully Fletcher (19.35%) but not far behind Labor is independent Deb Leonard who has boosted her 2022 vote by 7% to 18.91% to be within striking distance of taking the seat.
It will all come down to preferences.
Ms Leonard needs to get past Tully Fletcher when preferences from small party candidates are distributed to get the benefit of the flow of ALP preferences but it could take days before the outcome is revealed.
The Sky TV coverage put Ms Leonard in front but also anticipated "a long count ahead in that seat". The ABC was giving the seat to Mary Aldred for the Liberals but on the basis that Ms Leonard doesn't get past Labor.
At this stage, with 13,124 first preference votes, the Liberals’ Mary Aldred is in the boxseat to win Monash, especially if she collects the lion’s share of former Liberal Russell Broadbent’s preferences. Mr Broadbent has attracted 10.34% of the vote in his own right, or 4,584 votes by 10pm but Ms Leonard remains a live possibility on Saturday night with a primary vote of 8,385, just a handful of votes behind Tully Fletcher (ALP) on 8,578 votes.
The Leonard campaign team got together at the Westernport Hotel in San Remo to watch the count but left at about 9.30pm saying they thought they might just fall short. Only time will tell.
See the latest Monash count HERE
