IT’S done and dusted, well almost, in the Federal Electorate of Monash where first-time candidate Mary Aldred is on track to deliver one of very few positive signs for the Liberal Party in the 2025 Federal Election.
When vote counting finished on Saturday night, legendary ABC election analyst Antony Green said the seat of Monash was too close and too complex to call.
“We’ve got no idea who is going to win Monash tonight,” he said, noting that votes were going “all over the place” in a close three-cornered contest.
But as vote counting continued on Sunday, the picture became clearer, that Mary Aldred was on her way to victory.
With 90,480 votes counted including all ‘ordinary’ votes from the 77 polling booths in Monash and some 3993 postal votes, Mary Aldred had captured 32.07% of the vote or 27,418.
Ms Aldred is expected to be well favoured by the preferences of those who voted for the former Liberal Member for Monash, turned independent, Russell Broadbent who managed to secure 10.10% of the vote or 8634 votes, moving Ms Aldred above 40% of the vote and within striking distance of winning.
Her nearest rivals, Tully Fletcher for Labor and Deb Leonard independent have a tougher job ahead of them.
In counting on Sunday, Ms Leonard (15,015 or 17.56%)fell further behind in her initial goal of securing more first preference votes than Labor’s Tully Fletcher (17,443 or 20.40%), going from just 193 votes behind on Saturday night to 2430 votes behind later in the day on Sunday.
On those numbers, her campaign challenge may be over unless she can secure the lion’s share of preferences coming from the Green’s Terence Steele 3876, the Legalise Cannabis Party candidate David O’Reilly 2878 and Trumpet of Patriots’ Alex Wehbe with 2052 votes.
The preferences of Family First candidate Geoff Dethlefs 1499 and Kuljeet Robinson of Pauline Hanson One Nation 6673 are expected to heavily favour Ms Aldred.
So, Ms Leonard looks unlikely to get to second place during the distribution of preferences and have access to the preferences of Labor’s Tully Fletcher.
And there’s unlikely to be enough votes left after Ms Leonard drops out of the count to get Tully Fletcher over the line.
But the AEC is yet to start distributing preferences in Monash or to chance their arm with a two-party preferred result so, in theory at least, it’s still too close to call.
But the signs are good for Ms Aldred.
- ROBINSON, Kuljeet Kaur 6673 7 votes 81%
- FLETCHER, Tully 17,443 votes 20.40%
- BROADBENT, Russell 8635 votes, 10.10%
- ALDRED, Mary 27,418 votes, 32.07%
- LEONARD, Deb 15,015 votes, 17.56%
- DETHLEFS, Geoff 1499 votes, 1.75%
- O'REILLY, David 2878 votes, 3.37%
- STEELE, Terence 3876 votes, 4.53%
- WEHBE, Alex 2052 votes, 2.40%
- Formal 85,489 votes, 94.48%
- Informal 4991 votes, 5.52%
- Total votes 90,480.
