Cliffhanger! - 2022 State Election in Bass

Days until Bass result known

IT COULD take until Monday, December 12 to determine the outcome in the electorate of Bass.

Only two other Assembly seats in the state were closer as counting continued on Monday this week.

By mid-afternoon yesterday Jordan Crugnale (Labor) was leading Aaron Brown (Liberals) by 225 votes, with the Victorian Electoral Commission not adding to its weekend tally, which showed Ms Crugnale on 15,968 votes and Mr Brown on 15,743, after preferences were distributed.

For the VEC, the day was taken up rechecking votes counted in Bass on Saturday, with only minor alterations expected.

They say they will continue counting out-of-district early votes, absent votes, and postal votes from Tuesday onwards.

If it’s close, and a full recount is required, a result might not be known for weeks.

Fortunately, the state-wide result doesn’t hang on the outcome in Bass with Labor already returned to office with upwards of 51 seats in the 88-seat Parliament.

Among those in Opposition will be The Nationals’ Danny O’Brien, who increased his majority in Gippsland South, sweeping all 46 booths, from Sale to Nyora, collecting 55.10% of the first preference vote, and 66.72% after preferences.

But whether Bass has a seat at government’s table, only time will tell.

With as many as 11,000 early votes, absentee and postal votes still to be counted, the contest here could go either way.

To Mr Brown’s advantage is that postal votes are already favouring him by 56 per cent, enough for him to overtake Ms Crugnale’s lead, if upwards of 1500 postals are still to arrive.

To date, Aaron Brown has picked up 1498 of the 2672 postal votes (two-candidate preferred), compared to Jordan Crugnale’s 1091. If that continued, Mr Brown would receive 140 more votes per 1000 postal votes than Ms Crugnale.

Balancing that, Ms Crugnale received more ‘early votes’ than Mr Brown, 8070 to 7353, but Mr Brown has been narrowly winning the count on the day, 6892 to 6807.

On those numbers, Mr Brown is favoured to win a very close contest, despite Ms Crugnale achieving a 1.1% swing to Labor in the seat of Bass, against a “patchy” swing to the Coalition across Victoria.

There is, however, a cloud hanging over the result in Bass after voters were turned away at some polling booths in the electorate when the VEC ran out of voting papers (see Sentinel-Times’ article – Bass voting ‘a shemozzle’).

Speaking about the election this week, Ms Crugnale acknowledged it was “way too early to call it”.

“It was always going to be close with or without the redistribution and I have never once taken anything for granted,” she told the Sentinel-Times.

“I am absolutely thrilled and relieved that our Andrews Labor Government has been returned and we can continue to build on our progressive and positive program and agenda for all Victorians.

“I want to take this opportunity to thank the many community members that have shown their support at the polls - it is humbling, and also to those that have walked beside me and my family along this four-year journey. Big shout out to my office team whose care, compassion, hard work and dedication to supporting our community at every turn is immeasurable.

“It’s been a privilege and honour to work for and with our Bass community and together we have achieved so much.

“There is always more to do and regardless of the local outcome, our Government will continue to support, invest and deliver the services, programs, infrastructure and funding we need here - including our election commitments for our Stage 2 Wonthaggi hospital, local schools, boat ramps and jetties and of course, the more state-wide ones including rebuilding the SEC, strengthening our nurse to patient ratios, more ambos, transforming our specialist schools, nation-leading renewable and emissions targets and so much more.”

Mr Brown agreed it would be days before the result was known.

“It’s too early to call the result for Bass but I remain hopeful. I ran a positive grass-roots campaign, focussed on local issues,” Mr Brown said.

“Many of the Liberal policies were well-received by locals, particularly commitments towards improving our roads, development of local hospitals, Inverloch erosion and an aquatic centre on Phillip Island, to name a few.

“I am grateful to all volunteers who helped during pre-poll and election day, but also for the many months leading up to election day.

“I thank all candidates for their nominations as I know it’s not an easy thing to put yourself out there, but by nominating they have given the people of Bass a choice.”

The count in Bass

Candidate by candidate votes in the District of Bass at the close of counting at 11.42pm on Saturday, November 26:

* Brett TESSARI, The Nationals, 4830 (15.23%)

* Mark O’NEILL, Labour DLP, 1009 (3.18%)

* Marcus MUNDAY, Freedom Party, 625 (1.97%)

* Martin VERHAGEN, Family First, 789 (2.49%)

* Jordan CRUGNALE, Labor, 10,441 (32.92%)

* Elly MOUSELLIS, Animal Justice Party, 750 (2.36%)

* Aaron BROWN, Liberal, 9182 (28.95%)

* Meg EDWARDS, Independent, 735 (2.32%)

* Callum BUGBIRD, Greens, 2508 (7.91%)

* Jeni JOBE, Independent 850 (2.68%)

Two party preferred (actual count)

* Jordan CRUGNALE, Labor 15,968 (50.35%)

* Aaron BROWN, Liberal 15,743 (49.65%)