Bass: Jordan Crugnale leads but Libs closing the gap

THE 10 candidates, and upwards of 40,000 voters in the District of Bass, went to bed on election night, Saturday, November 26, not knowing who will be their representative in the 60^th Parliament of Victoria.

They still don't know on Sunday morning after further votes were added to the count, with Labor's Jordan Crugnale and the Liberals' Aaron Brown neck-and-neck, but with Mr Brown closing the gap to 225 votes. Brett Tessari for The Nationals polled strongly but can't win from here.

While there's no clear winner in Bass, not so for the voters on Gippsland South.

The Nationals’ candidate, and sitting Member, Danny O’Brien, romped in to win, collecting an estimated two-party preferred vote of 66.72% as compared to his strong showing in 2018 of 65.33% of the distributed vote.

His performance was indicative of a stellar effort by The Nationals across Victoria, where they retained all their own seats and look set to win the seats of Mildura and Shepparton from the independents, making it nine seats in all.

But the spotlight locally, as it has been throughout the campaign, has been on the seat of Bass, stretching from Inverloch, Wonthaggi and Phillip Island in the south, through the Waterline area and north to Tooradin, Koo Wee Rup and Lang Lang.

Here, after 33,696 of a possible 49,984 votes were counted by 10am on Sunday morning, the Labor Party’s incumbent, Jordan Crugnale held a slender lead.

But she declined to comment beyond saying it’s “still too early” and could take days before the final result is in.

So close was the count in Bass during the night that the ABC's Anthony Green first gave it to the Liberals Aaron Brown, then put Ms Crugnale in front and finally finished the night with the result in the seat of Bass officially “in doubt”. It's still in doubt but with Mr Brown closing the gap slightly on votes counted on Sunday morning.

Ms Crugnale has been awarded 15,968 votes or 50.35% of the two-party preferred vote, as against the Liberals’ Aaron Brown with 15,743 or 49.65% as preferences are being distributed, but it’s still either candidates’ race to win.

One thing is certain, neither The Nationals’ Brett Tessari, who ran a strong first-up campaign to collect 4830 votes (15.23%), nor any of the other small-party and independent candidates can win it.

To date, 67.4% or 33,696 of the enrolment of 49,984 have been counted, but with a turnout of 91% back in 2018, there may still be thousands of prepoll and postal votes to be counted.

Whatever happens from here, the ALP’s Jordan Crugnale has performed strongly to be leading the race, at the end of the count on Saturday night and into Sunday morning after the seat was made notionally Liberal by a redistribution which saw a developing area of Pakenham cut off from Bass.

Overall, though, it was a stunning victory for Labor, likely to win between 52 and 55 seats in the 88-seat parliament, potentially back to the ‘Danslide’ level of the 2018 election, despite what many predicted would be the negativity of the government’s response to the pandemic.

The count in Bass

Candidate by candidate votes in the District of Bass at the close of counting at 11.42pm on Saturday, November 26:

• Brett TESSARI, The Nationals, 4830 (15.23%)
• Mark O'NEILL, Labour DLP, 1009 (3.18%)
• Marcus MUNDAY, Freedom Party, 625 (1.97%)
• Martin VERHAGEN, Family First, 789 (2.49%)
• Jordan CRUGNALE, Labor, 10,441 (32.92%)
• Elly MOUSELLIS, Animal Justice Party, 750 (2.36%)
• Aaron BROWN, Liberal, 9182 (28.95%)
• Meg EDWARDS, Independent, 735 (2.32%)
• Callum BUGBIRD, Greens, 2508 (7.91%)
• Jeni JOBE, Independent 850 (2.68%)

Two-party indication

Two party preferred vote

• Jordan CRUGNALE, Labor 15,955 (50.36%)
• Aaron BROWN, Liberal 15,730 (49.64%)

Who won your booth

Labor's Jordan Crugnale hardly lost a local polling booth to the Coalition duo of Brett Tessari or Aaron Brown, including Brett's hometown of Wonthaggi where Jordan Crugnale topped the poll in both the Wonthaggi booth at the new secondary college, 193 votes to Brett Tessari's 192 and Aaron Brown's 108, and at Wonthaggi North; Crugnale 163, Tessari 145 and Brown 108.

Among the booths where Aaron Brown outpolled both of his rivals were Bass; Crugnale 94, Tessari 67, Brown 114, Bayles near Koo Wee Rup; Crugnale 117, Tessari 53 and Brown 229, Koo Wee Rup; Crugnale 323, Tessari 93 and Brown 399, Lan Lang; Crugnale 242, Tessari 107, Brown 287, Rhyll; Crugnale 167, Tessari 76, Brown 170 and Tooradin; Crugnale 159, Tessari 74 and Brown 258.